Topic: Modeling risk
Pages: 11, Double spaced
Order type: Assignment
Language: English (U.K.)
2. Theоry (10 mаrks)
Please evaluate the fоllоwing question. Your evaluation requires you to рrepare and defend a сhosen position:
‘Knowledge can be divided into uncertainty and perfect knowledge. Where does risk fit into this spectrum?’
(Hint: Evaluate the terms as measurable – i.e. a number between 0 and 1)
4. I want to choose any disneyland company.
Workplace application (22.5 marks)
Identify how your work case problem would benefit if more reliable quantitative analysis and forecasts were available. (Ideally you should the same work case problem from the first assignment, but if it does not lend itself well to this assignment you may choose another problem from your workplace).
5. Your research requires you to:
– Collect as much relevant data about the work case problem as possible. Analyse the data using descriptive statistics (measures of probability, frequency and central tendency such as mean, mode, median and standard deviation) and then plot the data in appropriate graphical forms.
– Assess the diagrams by determining the key characteristics of the data – i.e. summarise the patterns and skewness to interpret what these patterns are likely indicate about the data to date
– Use one quantitative modelling forecasting techniques to develop forecasts from the data – for example naive, moving average, exponential smoothing and/or regression
– Explain your key findings from the quantitative analysis. In doing so, apply the predictions to your work case problem and determine what the consequences would be for your workplace.
– Under what circumstances are qualitative modelling techniques suitable for forecasting? Explain how qualitative techniques could be applied to your chosen work case problem to improve future outcomes